Մասնակից:Anyut2020/Ավազարկղ6

Վիքիպեդիայից՝ ազատ հանրագիտարանից

Ակադեմիական կարիերա[խմբագրել | խմբագրել կոդը]

Krugman giving a lecture at the German National Library in Frankfurt in 2008.

1977 թվականի սեպտեմբերին Քրուգմանը դարձել է Եյլի համալսարանի պրոֆեսորի օգնական։ 1979թ. ընդունվել Է Մասաչուսեթսի տեխնոլոգիական ինստիտուտի ֆակուլտետ։ 1982-1983թթ. Քրուգմանն աշխատել է Ռեյգանի Սպիտակ տանը՝ որպես տնտեսական խորհրդատուների խորհրդի անդամ։ 1984 թվականին նա վերադարձել է Մասաչուսեթսի տեխնոլոգիական ինստիտուտ՝ արդեն որպես պրոֆեսոր։ Կրուգմանը դասավանդել է նաև Սթենֆորդի համալսարանում, Եյլի համալսարանում և Լոնդոնի տնտեսագիտության և քաղաքական գիտությունների դպրոցում[1]:

2000 թվականին Քրուգմանը ընդունվել է Փրինսթոնի համալսարան որպես տնտեսագիտության և միջազգային հարաբերությունների պրոֆեսոր։ Ներկայումս նա աշխատում է նաև Լոնդոնի տնտեսագիտության և քաղաքական գիտությունների դպրոցում և երեսուն միջազգային տնտեսական կազմակերպությունների խմբի (G30) անդամ է: 1979 թվականից Նա Տնտեսական հետազոտությունների ազգային բյուրոյի գիտաշխատող է։ 2010 թվականին Քրուգմանն եղել է Արևելյան տնտեսական ասոցիացիայի նախագահը։ 2014 թվականի փետրվարին նա հայտարարել է, որ դուրս է գալու Փրինսթոնի համալսարանից և 2015 թվականի հունիսին միանալու է Նյու Յորքի քաղաքային համալսարանի դասախոսական կազմին[2]:

Փոլ Քրուգմանը մեծ քանակությամբ աշխատանքներ է գրել միջազգային տնտեսագիտության մասին, այդ թվում՝ միջազգային առևտրի, տնտեսական աշխարհագրության և միջազգային ֆինանսների վերաբերյալ: «Research Papers in Economics» (RePEc) նախագիծը այն դասում է աշխարհի ամենաազդեցիկ տնտեսագետների շարքին[3]։ Քրուգմանի՝ «Միջազգային տնտեսագիտություն: Տեսություն և քաղաքականություն», որը գրված է նաև Մորիս Օբստֆելդի համահեղինակությամբ, միջազգային տնտեսագիտության բակալավրի ավարտական կուրսի ստանդարտ դասագիրք է: Քրուգմանը նաև ավարտական կուրսի ուսանողների համար նախատեսված նյութի համահեղինակ է Ռոբին Ուելսի հետ միասին, վերջինս նշել է, որ շատ ոգևորված է Պոլ Սամուելսոնի դասական գրքի առաջին հրատարակությունից[4]: Քրուգմանը գրել է տնտեսագիտական, երբեմն էլ միջազգային տնտեսագիտության, եկամտի բաշխման և պետության քաղաքականության թեմաներով աշխատանքներ հանրության լայն շրջանակների համար:

Նոբելյան հանձնաժողովը հայտարարել է, որ Քրուգմանի հիմնական ներդրումը իր մասշտաբից տնտեսման ազդեցության վերլուծությունն է, որը զուգորդվում է այն ենթադրության հետ, որ սպառողները գնահատում են բազմազանությունը, միջազգային առևտուրը և տնտեսական գործունեությունը[5]:

Փոլ Քրուգմանը կարդում է դասախոսություն Ֆրանկֆուրտում՝ Գերմանիայի ազգային գրադարանում

New trade theory[խմբագրել | խմբագրել կոդը]

Prior to Krugman's work, trade theory (see David Ricardo and Heckscher–Ohlin model) emphasized trade based on the comparative advantage of countries with very different characteristics, such as a country with a high agricultural productivity trading agricultural products for industrial products from a country with a high industrial productivity. However, in the 20th century, an ever-larger share of trade occurred between countries with similar characteristics, which is difficult to explain by comparative advantage. Krugman's explanation of trade between similar countries was proposed in a 1979 paper in the Journal of International Economics, and involves two key assumptions: that consumers prefer a diverse choice of brands, and that production favors economies of scale.[6] Consumers' preference for diversity explains the survival of different versions of cars like Volvo and BMW. However, because of economies of scale, it is not profitable to spread the production of Volvos all over the world; instead, it is concentrated in a few factories and therefore in a few countries (or maybe just one). This logic explains how each country may specialize in producing a few brands of any given type of product, instead of specializing in different types of products.

Graph illustrating Krugman's 'core-periphery' model. The horizontal axis represents costs of trade, while the vertical axis represents the share of either region in manufacturing. Solid lines denote stable equilibria, dashed lines denote unstable equilibria.

Krugman modeled a 'preference for diversity' by assuming a CES utility function like that in a 1977 paper by Avinash Dixit and Joseph Stiglitz.[7][8] Many models of international trade now follow Krugman's lead, incorporating economies of scale in production and a preference for diversity in consumption.[5][9] This way of modeling trade has come to be called New Trade Theory.[10]

Krugman's theory also took into account transportation costs, a key feature in producing the "home market effect", which would later feature in his work on the new economic geography. The home market effect "states that, ceteris paribus, the country with the larger demand for a good shall, at equilibrium, produce a more than proportionate share of that good and be a net exporter of it."[10] The home market effect was an unexpected result, and Krugman initially questioned it, but ultimately concluded that the mathematics of the model were correct.[10]

When there are economies of scale in production, it is possible that countries may become 'locked into' disadvantageous patterns of trade.[11] Krugman points out that although globalization has been positive on a whole, since the 1980s the process known as hyper-globalization has at least played a part in rising inequality.[12] Nonetheless, trade remains beneficial in general, even between similar countries, because it permits firms to save on costs by producing at a larger, more efficient scale, and because it increases the range of brands available and sharpens the competition between firms.[13] Krugman has usually been supportive of free trade and globalization.[14][15] He has also been critical of industrial policy, which New Trade Theory suggests might offer nations rent-seeking advantages if "strategic industries" can be identified, saying it's not clear that such identification can be done accurately enough to matter.[16]

New economic geography[խմբագրել | խմբագրել կոդը]

It took an interval of eleven years, but ultimately Krugman's work on New Trade Theory (NTT) converged to what is usually called the "new economic geography" (NEG), which Krugman began to develop in a seminal 1991 paper, "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography", published in the Journal of Political Economy.[17] In Krugman's own words, the passage from NTT to NEG was "obvious in retrospect; but it certainly took me a while to see it. ... The only good news was that nobody else picked up that $100 bill lying on the sidewalk in the interim."[18] This would become Krugman's most-cited academic paper: by early 2009, it had 857 citations, more than double his second-ranked paper.[10] Krugman called the paper "the love of my life in academic work."[19]

The "home market effect" that Krugman discovered in NTT also features in NEG, which interprets agglomeration "as the outcome of the interaction of increasing returns, trade costs and factor price differences."[10] If trade is largely shaped by economies of scale, as Krugman's trade theory argues, then those economic regions with most production will be more profitable and will therefore attract even more production. That is, NTT implies that instead of spreading out evenly around the world, production will tend to concentrate in a few countries, regions, or cities, which will become densely populated but will also have higher levels of income.[5][20]

Agglomeration and economies of scale[խմբագրել | խմբագրել կոդը]

Manufacturing is characterized by increasing returns to scale and less restrictive and expansive land qualifications as compared to agricultural uses. So, geographically where can manufacturing be predicted to develop? Krugman states that manufacturing's geographical range is inherently limited by economies of scale, but also that manufacturing will establish and accrue itself in an area of high demand. Production that occurs adjacent to demand will result in lower transportation costs, but demand, as a result, will be greater due to concentrated nearby production. These forces act upon one another simultaneously, producing manufacturing and population agglomeration. Population will increase in these areas due to the more highly developed infrastructure and nearby production, therefore lowering the expense of good, while economies of scale provide varied choices of goods and services. These forces will feed into each other until the greater portion of the urban population and manufacturing hubs are concentrated into a relatively insular geographic area.[21]

International finance[խմբագրել | խմբագրել կոդը]

Krugman has also been influential in the field of international finance. As a graduate student, Krugman visited the Federal Reserve Board where Stephen Salant and Dale Henderson were completing their discussion paper on speculative attacks in the gold market. Krugman adapted their model for the foreign exchange market, resulting in a 1979 paper on currency crises in the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, which showed that misaligned fixed exchange rate regimes are unlikely to end smoothly but instead end in a sudden speculative attack.[22] Krugman's paper is considered one of the main contributions to the 'first generation' of currency crisis models,[23][24] and it is his second-most-cited paper (457 citations as of early 2009).[10]

In response to the global financial crisis of 2008, Krugman proposed, in an informal "mimeo" style of publication,[25] an "international finance multiplier", to help explain the unexpected speed with which the global crisis had occurred. He argued that when, "highly leveraged financial institutions [HLIs], which do a lot of cross-border investment [. ... ] lose heavily in one market ... they find themselves undercapitalized, and have to sell off assets across the board. This drives down prices, putting pressure on the balance sheets of other HLIs, and so on." Such a rapid contagion had hitherto been considered unlikely because of "decoupling" in a globalized economy.[26][27][28] He first announced that he was working on such a model on his blog, on October 5, 2008.[29] Within days of its appearance, it was being discussed on some popular economics-oriented blogs.[30][31] The note was soon being cited in papers (draft and published) by other economists,[32] even though it had not itself been through ordinary peer review processes.

Macroeconomics and fiscal policy[խմբագրել | խմբագրել կոդը]

Կաղապար:Macroeconomics sidebar Krugman has done much to revive discussion of the liquidity trap as a topic in economics.[33][34][35][36] He recommended pursuing aggressive fiscal policy and unconventional monetary policy to counter Japan's lost decade in the 1990s, arguing that the country was mired in a Keynesian liquidity trap.[37][38][39] The debate he started at that time over liquidity traps and what policies best address them continues in the economics literature.[40]

Krugman had argued in The Return of Depression Economics that Japan was in a liquidity trap in the late 1990s, since the central bank could not drop interest rates any lower to escape economic stagnation.[41] The core of Krugman's policy proposal for addressing Japan's liquidity trap was inflation targeting, which, he argued "most nearly approaches the usual goal of modern stabilization policy, which is to provide adequate demand in a clean, unobtrusive way that does not distort the allocation of resources."[39] The proposal appeared first in a web posting on his academic site.[42] This mimeo-draft was soon cited, but was also misread by some as repeating his earlier advice that Japan's best hope was in "turning on the printing presses", as recommended by Milton Friedman, John Makin, and others.[43][44][45]

Krugman has since drawn parallels between Japan's 'lost decade' and the late 2000s recession, arguing that expansionary fiscal policy is necessary as the major industrialized economies are mired in a liquidity trap.[46] In response to economists who point out that the Japanese economy recovered despite not pursuing his policy prescriptions, Krugman maintains that it was an export-led boom that pulled Japan out of its economic slump in the late-90s, rather than reforms of the financial system.[47]

Krugman was one of the most prominent advocates of the 2008–2009 Keynesian resurgence, so much so that economics commentator Noah Smith referred to it as the "Krugman insurgency."[48][49][50] His view that most peer-reviewed macroeconomic research since the mid-1960s is wrong, preferring simpler models developed in the 1930s, has been criticized by some modern economists, like John H. Cochrane.[51] In June 2012, Krugman and Richard Layard launched A manifesto for economic sense, where they call for greater use of fiscal stimulus policy to reduce unemployment and foster growth.[52] The manifesto received over four thousand signatures within two days of its launch,[53] and has attracted both positive and critical responses.[54][55]

President George W. Bush poses for a photo with Nobel Prize winners Monday, Nov. 24, 2008, in the Oval Office. Joining President Bush from left are, Dr. Paul Krugman, Economics Prize Laureate; Dr. Martin Chalfie, Chemistry Prize Laureate; and Dr. Roger Tsien, Chemistry Prize Laureate.

Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences[խմբագրել | խմբագրել կոդը]

Krugman was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (informally the Nobel Prize in Economics), the sole recipient for 2008. This prize includes an award of about $1.4 million and was given to Krugman for his work associated with New Trade Theory and the New Economic Geography.[56] In the words of the prize committee, "By having integrated economies of scale into explicit general equilibrium models, Paul Krugman has deepened our understanding of the determinants of trade and the location of economic activity."[57]

Awards[խմբագրել | խմբագրել կոդը]

Paul Krugman accepts EPI Distinguished Economist Award (2011)

A May 2011 Hamilton College analysis of 26 politicians, journalists, and media commentators who made predictions in major newspaper columns or television news shows from September 2007 to December 2008 found that Krugman was the most accurate. Only nine of the prognosticators predicted more accurately than chance, two were significantly less accurate, and the remaining 14 were no better or worse than a coin flip. Krugman was correct in 15 out of 17 predictions, compared to 9 out of 11 for the next most accurate media figure, Maureen Dowd.[75]

Foreign Policy named Krugman one of its 2012 FP Top 100 Global Thinkers "for wielding his acid pen against austerity".[76]

  1. «Krugman Curriculum Vitae» (PDF). Արխիվացված (PDF) օրիգինալից March 4, 2016-ին. Վերցված է March 31, 2016-ին.
  2. Krugman, Paul (February 28, 2014), «Changes (Personal/Professional)», The New York Times, Արխիվացված օրիգինալից July 26, 2014-ին, Վերցված է July 18, 2014-ին, «I have informed Princeton that I will be retiring at the end of next academic year, that is, in June 2015. In August 2015 I will join the faculty of the Graduate Center, City University of New York, as a professor in the Ph.D. program in economics. I will also become a distinguished scholar at the Graduate Center's Luxembourg Income Study Center.»
  3. Քաղվածելու սխալ՝ Սխալ <ref> պիտակ՝ «IDEAS» անվանումով ref-երը տեքստ չեն պարունակում:
  4. Paul Krugman (December 13, 2009). «Paul Samuelson, RIP». The New York Times. «One of the things Robin Wells and I did when writing our principles of economics textbook was to acquire and study a copy of the original, 1948 edition of Samuelson's textbook.»
  5. 5,0 5,1 5,2 Nobel Prize Committee, "The Prize in Economic Sciences 2008" Արխիվացված Օգոստոս 30, 2017 Wayback Machine
  6. Arvind Panagariya (October 13, 2008). «Paul Krugman, Nobel». Forbes. Արխիվացված օրիգինալից November 7, 2017-ին. Վերցված է September 7, 2017-ին.
  7. Dixit, Avinash; Stiglitz, Joseph (1977). «Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity». American Economic Review. 67 (3): 297–308. JSTOR 1831401.
  8. Kikuchi, Toru (2010). «The Dixit-Stiglitz-Krugman Trade Model: A Geometric Note». Discussion Papers from Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University (1006). Արխիվացված օրիգինալից April 25, 2013-ին. Վերցված է August 19, 2012-ին.
  9. Rosser, J. Barkley (2011). «2: The New Economic Geography Approach». Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity. Springer. էջ 24. «The workhorse model of this approach since 1991 has been the model of monopolistic competition due to Avinash Dixit and Joseph Stiglitz (1977). It was used by Paul Krugman (1979, 1980) to provide an approach to analyzing increasing returns in international trade.»
  10. 10,0 10,1 10,2 10,3 10,4 10,5 Behrens, Kristian; Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric (2009). «Krugman's Papers in Regional Science: The 100 dollar bill on the sidewalk is gone and the 2008 Nobel Prize well-deserved». Papers in Regional Science. 88 (2): 467–89. doi:10.1111/j.1435-5957.2009.00241.x.
  11. Krugman, P. (1981). «Trade, accumulation, and uneven development». Journal of Development Economics. 8 (2): 149–61. doi:10.1016/0304-3878(81)90026-2. hdl:10419/160238.
  12. Paul Krugman. https://www.ubs.com/microsites/nobel-perspectives/en/paul-krugman.html(չաշխատող հղում) in UBS Nobel Perspectives interview, 2008.
  13. "Bold strokes: a strong economic stylist wins the Nobel" Արխիվացված Հոկտեմբեր 21, 2008 Wayback Machine, The Economist, October 16, 2008.
  14. Քաղվածելու սխալ՝ Սխալ <ref> պիտակ՝ «smokymountain» անվանումով ref-երը տեքստ չեն պարունակում:
  15. (He writes on p. xxvi of his book The Great Unraveling that "I still have the angry letter Ralph Nader sent me when I criticized his attacks on globalization.")
  16. Strategic trade policy and the new international economics, Paul R. Krugman (ed), The MIT Press, p. 18, 978-0-262-61045-2
  17. "Honoring Paul Krugman" Արխիվացված Դեկտեմբեր 26, 2017 Wayback Machine Economix blog of The New York Times, Edward Glaeser, October 13, 2008.
  18. Krugman (1999) "Was it all in Ohlin?" Արխիվացված Մայիս 23, 2009 Wayback Machine
  19. Krugman PR (2008), "Interview with the 2008 laureate in economics Paul Krugman" Արխիվացված Հուլիս 26, 2010 Wayback Machine, December 6, 2008. Stockholm, Sweden.
  20. Քաղվածելու սխալ՝ Սխալ <ref> պիտակ՝ «forbes131008» անվանումով ref-երը տեքստ չեն պարունակում:
  21. «Archived copy» (PDF). Արխիվացված (PDF) օրիգինալից December 1, 2017-ին. Վերցված է November 22, 2017-ին.{{cite web}}: CS1 սպաս․ արխիվը պատճենվել է որպես վերնագիր (link)
  22. «Currency Crises». Web.mit.edu. Արխիվացված օրիգինալից March 28, 2010-ին. Վերցված է 2011-10-04-ին.
  23. Sarno, Lucio; Mark P. Taylor (2002). The Economics of Exchange Rates. Cambridge University Press. էջեր 245–64. ISBN 978-0-521-48584-5.
  24. Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo (2008), "Currency crisis models" Արխիվացված Հոկտեմբեր 28, 2008 Wayback Machine, New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd ed.
  25. "The International Finance Multiplier", P. Krugman, October 2008
  26. "Global Economic Integration and Decoupling" Արխիվացված Հունիս 22, 2009 Wayback Machine, Donald L. Kohn, speech at the International Research Forum on Monetary policy, Frankfurt, Germany, 06-26-2008; from website for the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System. Retrieved 08-20-2009, June 26, 2008
  27. Nayan Chanda, YaleGlobal Online, orig. from Businessworld February 8, 2008 "Decoupling Demystified" Արխիվացված Մայիս 15, 2011 Wayback Machine
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